Rouhani - A Solid Foundation for Change?

Inevitably, there is much discussion and analysis about the character, beliefs and outlook of President Rouhani. As a senior Iranian Cleric, the traditional Western perspective would be of an intransigence and hardline approach to domestic and international affairs. This perhaps underpins the suspicion that many in the West (particularly in the US) continue to air following the recent Geneva Agreement.

It is also an important factor for anyone planning (as I am doing) on a commercial relationship with Iran. Can we really make investment plans without a confidence about the medium term political outlook?

My analysis suggests that whilst nothing can be certain, the indications are good. A few examples

1. He attended Glasgow Caledonian Unversity where he studied for an M.Phil and a Ph.D. Such experience living and studying in the West must have made its mark and I believe that Glagow culture is very inclusive (there is far more animosity between Glaswegian Protestants and Catholics than between Glaswegians and anyone from other cultures!!)

2. His thesis importantly reflects a view that Islamic thinking can evolve. In it, he wrote "No laws in Islam are immutable.........Islamic laws have been developed out of certain conditions and necessities of the time and space. This flexibility must be known as the essential feature of Islamic Law"

3. It is a nonsense to believe that he can immediately assume overt Western leanings as this would cause domestic unease. He is treading a tightrope between maintaining credibility with the more conservative elements in Iran whilst satisfying the more liberal elements amongst the Iranian population (which I believe are now the majority, particularly in the cities) and ensuring that the rest of the world will lower sanctions.

4. He speaks good English so doesn't rely on translators when speaking with foreign leaders.

5. His public comments have been impressively balanced between the nuclear issue and the importance of restoring economic health to the country. Iran is a very young country with demographics that the likes of Italy and Japan can only dream about! However, being a young country means that you have to offer economic opportunities to the population. I believe that Rouhani understands (and has explained to the more conservative elements) that unless the country can access international markets again, the Islamic Revolution is under threat. Having had the initiative to study in the West, I believe that it is likely that he has a far greater command of international politics and history than the likes of Ahmadinejad ever did!

Inevitably, and rightly so, there will be extensive analysis of Rouhani in the weeks, months and years ahead. It is right that all of us that are looking at Iran with commercial eyes, understand the importance of political leadership in the country.